Commodity traders have been positioning for this event for months. Smallholder farmers rarely receive the same lead time. Our latest C4 Take sets out what markets are already pricing in: anticipated coffee and cocoa harvest damage across West Africa and Brazil; wheat in Australia and rice in India at risk, with Indian monsoon rainfall more than a tenth below average; record auction prices for Panama Canal transit; and copper disruption from drought in Zambia and flooding in Chile.

The figure that matters most is not a market one. The World Food Programme warns that this event threatens to push at least 49 million more people into food insecurity, and those impacts can persist for years.

The infographic maps typical El Niño seasonal patterns for December to February and June to August against global cropland extent, so planners can see where the risk lands.

Forecast lead time only holds value when it reaches the people with the least capacity to absorb the impacts. That is the work: turning climate intelligence into decisions on the ground.